Vice President

The Denver Post says that McCain can gain in the West by picking Mitt Romney as his Vice President.  This might be true, but I question the likelihood of the point.

A Washington outsider who co-founded a private-equity firm and served as Massachusetts’ governor, Romney is viewed as balancing the perceived shortcomings of McCain, who has been an Arizona senator for 22 years and has admitted that economic issues aren’t his strength. Prior to dropping out of the campaign, Romney was substantially vetted, and he knows how to throw — and take — a punch.

Those factors alone might help a McCain-Romney ticket in the West. But Romney’s ties to the region, which include attending Brigham Young University in Utah and rescuing the 2002 Winter Olympics, could reap big political gains for McCain.

It was Romney, after all, who beat McCain in five Western primaries.

Yes, Romney beat McCain in those primaries.  But a large reason for that was the large Mormon percentage in the Republican primaries.  McCain is going to win those voters with or without Romney.  LDS voters are overwhelmingly Republican, and very unlikely to vote for Obama no matter who McCain puts on his ticket.  It might slightly increase LDS turnout with Romney in the VP spot, but I honestly don’t think it’d have a major effect.

There is also the question of Romney’s drawbacks in other areas.

Not that Romney doesn’t have negatives. Though he may help McCain in Michigan, where Romney’s father was governor, he could be a liability in the South.

He is a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, considered a cult by some evangelical Christians and Southern Baptists. Despite his central-casting good looks, he often comes across as aloof. And he and McCain taunted each other in the primaries, which could be exploited by Democrats.

The Evangelicals have had a tenuous alliance with the Mormons.  Both groups advocate the same socially conservative positions (pro-life, anti-gay rights, abstinence only sexual education, school prayer, etc.).  At the same time however, many evangelical Christians see Mormons as part of a cult; they have a very negative view of Mormons overall and will not want a Mormon President (or Vice President).  Despite Obama’s attempts to court these voters, I don’t think they will go Democratic.  But I do think Romney as VP might cause many of them to just stay home.  They weren’t too pleased with McCain in the first place, and Romney could just be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.  Will that put any states in play for Obama?  I think that’s unlikely, unless Obama really starts to pull away; but in that case no VP would save McCain anyway.

And then there is Michigan.  Romney has a good chance at bringing in Michigan for McCain.  I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: Michigan could easily outweigh any other concerns.  With such an unfavorable electoral map for McCain, having a shot at Michigan’s 17 Electoral Votes may just be too enticing to pass up.

The other factor for McCain is that there really don’t seem to be a whole lot of other good options.  McCain needs someone to help energize the campaign and Romney just might be able to do that.  At this point I’ll be pretty surprised if Romney isn’t selected.

UPDATE: Jay Cost at Real Clear Politics Says McCain should pick Romney.  Dan Schnur disagrees.

The VP speculation continues to increase.  With less than a month until the Democratic convention (and the Republican Convention shortly after that), everyone wants to know who Obama and McCain will pick for their VP’s.

Along with Tim Kaine, The Washington Post reports that Evan Bayh (Indiana) and Joe Biden (Delaware) are on Obama’s shortlist.  Of the three I think Biden is the least likely pick.  As much as he is respected as a foreign policy mind, and an experienced Senator, I think his long (very long) Washington career somewhat clashes with Obama’s message of change and a new kind of politics.  I wouldn’t mind Biden as VP, I just don’t think it helps the ticket.

As for Evan Bayh, he’d be my pick out of the three.  He’s a likable guy, and he’s very popular in Indiana.  He’s been a Senator for a while, but he’s not well known nationally to the extent that it hurts Obama’s change message.  He also just might be able to deliver Indiana which would be a nice boost for Obama.

On the Republican side of things, there has been more and more talk about Mitt Romney.  He really does seem to be the favorite right now.  Romney is a businessman and will help McCain where he is weakest - the economy.  Further, polls indicate that Romney gives McCain a good shot of winning Michigan.  With 17 Electoral Votes, that’s a big deal for the McCain campaign.  Romney was very popular among conservatives in the primaries.

Of course he does have his drawbacks.  Many in the evangelical community are concerned about Romney because he is a Mormon.  They were already not pleased with McCain as the Republican nominee; if McCain picks Romney as VP, they could very well revolt (or at least sit this one out, which would be just as bad for McCain).  The Washington Times today says that evenangelical leaders are telling McCain not to pick Romney.

Tim Kaine has been known to be on Obama’s VP list, but apparently he’s a finalist for the job.  I honestly don’t know enough about Kaine to comment.  That in and of itself might not be a good thing though; I follow politics a lot closer than most people do.  Will Obama benefit from picking a relatively unknown Governor from Virginia as his VP?  Or will the ticket scream “inexperience?”

Failing in Civility [The Washington Post] - The Washington Post thinks McCain should heed some of his own advice.

Romney’s Value [Robert Novak, Chicago Sun-Times] - Bob Novak points out 17 reasons why McCain should pick Romney as his VP: Michigans Electoral Votes.

Romney As Swing-Voter Bait? Hmmm… [Norm Scheiber, The New Republic] - Norm Scheiber disagrees with Bob Novak.

Getting to Know You [Bob Herbert, New York Times] - Bob Herbert says the candidate that voters need to get to know is McCain, rather than Obama.  And the real McCain is someone they might not like.

Lessons from Berlin [Jonathan Alter, Newsweek] - Jonathan Alter says history affects how the race (and Obama’s trip) are viewed.

McCain, Obama Rake in Megachecks - [Kenneth Vogel, The Politico] - Loopholes in the campaign finance rules allow both candidates to raise money far exceeding the limits of individual contributions.

The Obama VP team has floated Ann Veneman in their discussions with members of congress.  Veneman was George W. Bush’s Secretary of Agriculture from 2001 - 2004.  She is now the executive director of UNICEF.

“You select a strong independent woman who appeals to Republicans and independents, and so that’s hard to beat,” the Hill source said, explaining the logic of the possible choice. “Choosing someone like [Veneman] doesn’t hurt you with the Democrats. It just doesn’t hurt you. But it helps you with Independents and Republicans.”

Maybe.  But that also depends a lot on her positions on many issues.  If she is socially conservative it very well could hurt Obama with Democrats.  Although perhaps the Obama campaign thinks the Democrats will stick with him no matter who he picks.  House Democrats, however, have a history with Veneman:

“Are you serious?” one lawmaker asked vetters when Veneman’s name came up, a second source familiar with the conversations said.

The surprise stems from the fact that, while Veneman was seen as an experienced leader for her department, she often clashed with Democrats on a central battle front of the Bush years: regulation. Venemen was criticized by some Democrats and environmentalists, and praised by agriculture and food interests, for lightly regulating the industries and for encouraging trade and biotechnology during her tenure.

In my opinion there are two reasons you ask about someone to be your VP: 1) You are actually considering that person; 2) You have some specific objective in mind by leaking the name.  If the Obama team is doing the latter, then I’m thoroughly confused as to why.  Perhaps to test the waters about a Republican VP without leaking the actual name?

Obama Veep Team Floats Republican Name - The Politico

According to the Washington Post, McCain will announce his VP pick soon.  The McCain campaign says he is ready to announce on very short notice, and the article indicates that they would like to announce after Obama returns from Europe (Sunday) and before the start of the Olympics on August, 8th.

Two top aides to the presumptive Republican nominee said the decision is likely to be announced after Obama returns from Europe on Sunday and before the Beijing Olympics begin Aug. 8. They said the campaign fears that unanticipated events coming out of China — whether in the form of athletic accomplishments or human rights protests — could deflect attention from the announcement if it were made during the Games.

The Post says that likely picks include:

The list of likely contenders includes former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former U.S. budget director Rob Portman and former Pennsylvania governor Tom Ridge.

But I wouldn’t be surprised if McCain picked someone who isn’t on that list.  He likes to surprise people, and the campaign sure could use a shakeup; the VP pick might be just the thing they need to get back on track and to get some real media attention.

Posted By: Nick

 
Everything I’ve been hearing lately indicates that Obama will choose his Vice President sometime in the next 2 weeks.  The general theory seems to be that he needs to do it before the Olympics so as to get maximum press coverage for it.  He can’t wait until after the Olympics since the Democratic Convention is at the end of August.

My own thought is that he’ll announce it just before the Olympics.  The McCain campaign has indicated that they will announce after Obama; this is a good strategy as it allows them to counter the big Obama story with a big McCain story.  If Obama waits until right before the Olympics though, he can get his pick in, and then force McCain to either announce his pick during the Olympics are wait until after they end.  If Obama does this, and I were a McCain advisor, I think I’d announce at the beginning of the Democratic Convention in order to steal some of the thunder that weekend.

We’ll see how it plays out, but my prediction is that Obama announces on August 6th, in the afternoon.  It gives him that evening, and all day the 7th, for press coverage, and makes it hard for the McCain campaign to counter with their own selection before the Olympics begin.

UPDATE: Bob Novak claims that McCain will announce his VP this week.  He’s Bob Novak, so take that with a grain of salt.