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Real Clear Politics

The “Barack Obama Should Be Farther Ahead” Meme

by Nick on August 6, 2008

The media loves to keep coming back to the idea that somehow Barack Obama is failing because he’s not way ahead in the polls.  Today’s example is The Politico’s front-page article titled Obama Stalls in Public Polling.  Yes, this is a close election.  But to suggest that Barack Obama is somehow a failed candidate because he has not pulled away is misleading and, frankly, incredibly biased.

While Obama still leads in most matchups with John McCain, the Illinois senator’s apparent stall in the polls is a sobering reminder to Democrats intoxicated with his campaign’s promises to expand the electoral map beyond the boundaries that have constrained other recent party nominees. 

That gap between expectations and reality comes as Democrats enjoy the most favorable political winds since at least 1976. At least eight in ten Americans believe the nation is on the wrong track. The Republican president is historically unpopular. From stunning Democratic gains in party registration to the high levels of economic anxiety, Obama should have a healthy lead by almost every measure. Yet, in poll after poll, Obama conspicuously fails to cross the 50 percent threshold. 

But there is a major problem with this analysis.  The most glaringly obvious problem is that Obama is leading and has been leading consistently for some time now.  Furthermore, McCain is losing, and has been for some time now, but there is not a plethora of articles about how McCain should be doing so much better than he is.

The other problem is with national polling both in terms of accuracy and as an indicator electoral outcomes.  Polling is not an exact science; in fact it can be incredibly imprecise and is dependent on what the individual pollster decides is the proper formula for weighting.  In an election year such as this, we should expect higher Democratic turnout than Republican turnout, which will tilt the party identification numbers (which are already in favor of Democrats) even further into the Democratic column.

Then there is the Electoral College.  Our president is not selected by the popular vote (as much as I might wish it was).  If you take a look at the electoral map, the picture is very different.  Here are some current electoral college projections from a few different websites:

Five Thirty Eight: Obama 297.8; McCain 240.2

Real Clear Politics: Obama 238; McCain 163; Toss Ups 137
Without Toss Ups: Obama 322; McCain 216

Pollster: Obama 284; McCain 157; Toss Ups 97

CNN: Obama 221; McCain 189; Toss Ups 128

One thing seems clear in those projections: Obama has a strong lead.  In terms of Electoral Votes, safe Obama states outnumber safe McCain states by anyone’s count.  Furthermore, there aren’t many states in the Obama column that have potential to flip to McCain.  On the other hand, Obama does have an outside shot at a few states (North Carolina, Montana, Georgia) that McCain should have no worries about.

The important thing here is to fight back against this meme.  Barack Obama is doing just fine, and will continue to stay in the lead until he wins the election.  National Polling may fluctuate, but it shows him with a consistent lead; furthermore, the electoral map favors Obama much more than McCain.

Maybe the next time a journalist decides to write one of these nonsense stories they will examine the facts first, and then write about how things don’t look good for John McCain.

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The Denver Post Makes the Case for Romney

by Nick on July 31, 2008

MittRomney[1]

The Denver Post says that McCain can gain in the West by picking Mitt Romney as his Vice President.  This might be true, but I question the likelihood of the point.

A Washington outsider who co-founded a private-equity firm and served as Massachusetts’ governor, Romney is viewed as balancing the perceived shortcomings of McCain, who has been an Arizona senator for 22 years and has admitted that economic issues aren’t his strength. Prior to dropping out of the campaign, Romney was substantially vetted, and he knows how to throw — and take — a punch.

Those factors alone might help a McCain-Romney ticket in the West. But Romney’s ties to the region, which include attending Brigham Young University in Utah and rescuing the 2002 Winter Olympics, could reap big political gains for McCain.

It was Romney, after all, who beat McCain in five Western primaries.

Yes, Romney beat McCain in those primaries.  But a large reason for that was the large Mormon percentage in the Republican primaries.  McCain is going to win those voters with or without Romney.  LDS voters are overwhelmingly Republican, and very unlikely to vote for Obama no matter who McCain puts on his ticket.  It might slightly increase LDS turnout with Romney in the VP spot, but I honestly don’t think it’d have a major effect.

There is also the question of Romney’s drawbacks in other areas.

Not that Romney doesn’t have negatives. Though he may help McCain in Michigan, where Romney’s father was governor, he could be a liability in the South.

He is a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, considered a cult by some evangelical Christians and Southern Baptists. Despite his central-casting good looks, he often comes across as aloof. And he and McCain taunted each other in the primaries, which could be exploited by Democrats.

The Evangelicals have had a tenuous alliance with the Mormons.  Both groups advocate the same socially conservative positions (pro-life, anti-gay rights, abstinence only sexual education, school prayer, etc.).  At the same time however, many evangelical Christians see Mormons as part of a cult; they have a very negative view of Mormons overall and will not want a Mormon President (or Vice President).  Despite Obama’s attempts to court these voters, I don’t think they will go Democratic.  But I do think Romney as VP might cause many of them to just stay home.  They weren’t too pleased with McCain in the first place, and Romney could just be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.  Will that put any states in play for Obama?  I think that’s unlikely, unless Obama really starts to pull away; but in that case no VP would save McCain anyway.

And then there is Michigan.  Romney has a good chance at bringing in Michigan for McCain.  I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: Michigan could easily outweigh any other concerns.  With such an unfavorable electoral map for McCain, having a shot at Michigan’s 17 Electoral Votes may just be too enticing to pass up.

The other factor for McCain is that there really don’t seem to be a whole lot of other good options.  McCain needs someone to help energize the campaign and Romney just might be able to do that.  At this point I’ll be pretty surprised if Romney isn’t selected.

UPDATE: Jay Cost at Real Clear Politics Says McCain should pick Romney.  Dan Schnur disagrees.

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