Polls

The media loves to keep coming back to the idea that somehow Barack Obama is failing because he’s not way ahead in the polls.  Today’s example is The Politico’s front-page article titled Obama Stalls in Public Polling.  Yes, this is a close election.  But to suggest that Barack Obama is somehow a failed candidate because he has not pulled away is misleading and, frankly, incredibly biased.

While Obama still leads in most matchups with John McCain, the Illinois senator’s apparent stall in the polls is a sobering reminder to Democrats intoxicated with his campaign’s promises to expand the electoral map beyond the boundaries that have constrained other recent party nominees. 

That gap between expectations and reality comes as Democrats enjoy the most favorable political winds since at least 1976. At least eight in ten Americans believe the nation is on the wrong track. The Republican president is historically unpopular. From stunning Democratic gains in party registration to the high levels of economic anxiety, Obama should have a healthy lead by almost every measure. Yet, in poll after poll, Obama conspicuously fails to cross the 50 percent threshold. 

But there is a major problem with this analysis.  The most glaringly obvious problem is that Obama is leading and has been leading consistently for some time now.  Furthermore, McCain is losing, and has been for some time now, but there is not a plethora of articles about how McCain should be doing so much better than he is.

The other problem is with national polling both in terms of accuracy and as an indicator electoral outcomes.  Polling is not an exact science; in fact it can be incredibly imprecise and is dependent on what the individual pollster decides is the proper formula for weighting.  In an election year such as this, we should expect higher Democratic turnout than Republican turnout, which will tilt the party identification numbers (which are already in favor of Democrats) even further into the Democratic column.

Then there is the Electoral College.  Our president is not selected by the popular vote (as much as I might wish it was).  If you take a look at the electoral map, the picture is very different.  Here are some current electoral college projections from a few different websites:

Five Thirty Eight: Obama 297.8; McCain 240.2

Real Clear Politics: Obama 238; McCain 163; Toss Ups 137
Without Toss Ups: Obama 322; McCain 216

Pollster: Obama 284; McCain 157; Toss Ups 97

CNN: Obama 221; McCain 189; Toss Ups 128

One thing seems clear in those projections: Obama has a strong lead.  In terms of Electoral Votes, safe Obama states outnumber safe McCain states by anyone’s count.  Furthermore, there aren’t many states in the Obama column that have potential to flip to McCain.  On the other hand, Obama does have an outside shot at a few states (North Carolina, Montana, Georgia) that McCain should have no worries about.

The important thing here is to fight back against this meme.  Barack Obama is doing just fine, and will continue to stay in the lead until he wins the election.  National Polling may fluctuate, but it shows him with a consistent lead; furthermore, the electoral map favors Obama much more than McCain.

Maybe the next time a journalist decides to write one of these nonsense stories they will examine the facts first, and then write about how things don’t look good for John McCain.

Whether he runs or not is still an open question, but Hardball host Chris Matthews will have an uphill battle according to an early poll of the race.  The poll has Matthews at only 36% against Arlen Specter’s 41%.  The good news for Matthews is that 41% is very dangerous territory for an incumbent.  Likewise, Matthews has so many connections that he could probably raise a huge amount of money.

More information here.

Looks like Barack Obama is getting the expected bounce from his trip.  Gallup’s Daily Tracking Poll now has the race at Obama 48% - McCain 41% and Rasmussen’s Tracking Poll has the race at Obama 46% - McCain 40% (or 49%-43% with leaners).  Despite the McCain campaign’s best effort to ridicule Obama’s trip, the results are becoming clear: Obama looked like a President, and is reaping the benefits.

Howard Kurtz discussed the media coverage of the trip yesterday in his Washington Post column, and I think he hit the nail on the head.  Though the actual coverage has been fairly mixed (Fox News has done it’s best to counter the trip, Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC has surely taken every opportunity to attack Obama over the past week) the images tell a different story.

In short, though Obamapalooza was not quite the lovefest that some expected, news outlets provided a spotlight so bright that their own people were left in the shadows.

“The pictures bring people into the story,” says Jerry Rafshoon, who was President Jimmy Carter’s media adviser. “In the television age, the more people who can see him in the role of commander in chief, the better it is for him.” By contrast, Rafshoon says, when John McCain was seen riding around Kennebunkport in a golf cart with former president George H. W. Bush, “you’re seeing him with his generation, the older generation. They looked like the past.”

A picture is worth a thousand words.