Jay Cost

The Denver Post says that McCain can gain in the West by picking Mitt Romney as his Vice President.  This might be true, but I question the likelihood of the point.

A Washington outsider who co-founded a private-equity firm and served as Massachusetts’ governor, Romney is viewed as balancing the perceived shortcomings of McCain, who has been an Arizona senator for 22 years and has admitted that economic issues aren’t his strength. Prior to dropping out of the campaign, Romney was substantially vetted, and he knows how to throw — and take — a punch.

Those factors alone might help a McCain-Romney ticket in the West. But Romney’s ties to the region, which include attending Brigham Young University in Utah and rescuing the 2002 Winter Olympics, could reap big political gains for McCain.

It was Romney, after all, who beat McCain in five Western primaries.

Yes, Romney beat McCain in those primaries.  But a large reason for that was the large Mormon percentage in the Republican primaries.  McCain is going to win those voters with or without Romney.  LDS voters are overwhelmingly Republican, and very unlikely to vote for Obama no matter who McCain puts on his ticket.  It might slightly increase LDS turnout with Romney in the VP spot, but I honestly don’t think it’d have a major effect.

There is also the question of Romney’s drawbacks in other areas.

Not that Romney doesn’t have negatives. Though he may help McCain in Michigan, where Romney’s father was governor, he could be a liability in the South.

He is a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, considered a cult by some evangelical Christians and Southern Baptists. Despite his central-casting good looks, he often comes across as aloof. And he and McCain taunted each other in the primaries, which could be exploited by Democrats.

The Evangelicals have had a tenuous alliance with the Mormons.  Both groups advocate the same socially conservative positions (pro-life, anti-gay rights, abstinence only sexual education, school prayer, etc.).  At the same time however, many evangelical Christians see Mormons as part of a cult; they have a very negative view of Mormons overall and will not want a Mormon President (or Vice President).  Despite Obama’s attempts to court these voters, I don’t think they will go Democratic.  But I do think Romney as VP might cause many of them to just stay home.  They weren’t too pleased with McCain in the first place, and Romney could just be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.  Will that put any states in play for Obama?  I think that’s unlikely, unless Obama really starts to pull away; but in that case no VP would save McCain anyway.

And then there is Michigan.  Romney has a good chance at bringing in Michigan for McCain.  I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: Michigan could easily outweigh any other concerns.  With such an unfavorable electoral map for McCain, having a shot at Michigan’s 17 Electoral Votes may just be too enticing to pass up.

The other factor for McCain is that there really don’t seem to be a whole lot of other good options.  McCain needs someone to help energize the campaign and Romney just might be able to do that.  At this point I’ll be pretty surprised if Romney isn’t selected.

UPDATE: Jay Cost at Real Clear Politics Says McCain should pick Romney.  Dan Schnur disagrees.