Election ‘08

Mark Halperin writes that two sources are saying that McCain will pick Mitt Romney as his Vice President:

Two Republicans close to the situation say McCain has apparently settled on Mitt Romney as his running mate.

Two additional GOP sources say McCain had not offered the slot to anyone as of Thursday night, and that he could still change his mind

I hope so.  Romney simply reinforces the rich and out of touch image, and he doesn’t really appeal all that much to the voters in the middle.  Will he energize the conservative base?  I doubt it.  Half the conservative base isn’t comfortable with his religion, and the rest just wanted him during the primary because he was the only guy left that might have stopped John McCain.

Adding credibility to the Romney rumor, the NYTimes says that McCain will pick a pro-life VP:

Senator John McCain has narrowed his list of potential running mates to a handful of candidates and appears unlikely to select anyone who supports abortion rights, several advisers close to his campaign said on Thursday.

Makes sense after the very unhappy reaction from conservatives when Ridge and Lieberman were floated as possibilities.

But Mitt Romney is a lame pick.  McCain needs someone interesting (and surprising) if he’s going to expect his VP pick to help him.

Paul Krugman gets it right, as usual, in his column today.  The Obama campaign could be destroying McCain on the economy, but just doesn’t seem to be doing so:

Why isn’t the Obama campaign getting more traction on economic issues?

It’s not the Republican offensive on offshore drilling. It’s true that many Americans have apparently been misled by bogus claims about gas price relief. But as I’ve already pointed out, Democrats in general retain a large edge on economic issues.

Nor is there any valid basis for the complaints, highlighted in Sunday’s Times, that Mr. Obama isn’t offering enough policy specifics. Delve into the Obama campaign Web site and you’ll find plenty of policy detail. And the campaign’s ads reel off lots of specific policy proposals — too many, if you ask me.

No, the problem isn’t lack of specifics — it’s lack of passion. When it comes to the economy, Mr. Obama’s campaign seems oddly lethargic.

Maybe Obama just doesn’t have the passion for economic issues.  That’s fine, everyone has certain issues that are most important to them.  But the economy is where Democrats win.  As much as the American people are against the war, McCain will never lose big on that issue (or other national security issues).  The way to beat him is to focus on the reasons for our failing economy (8 years of Bush-McCain economic policies).

Barack Obama raised $7.8 million dollars today at 3 fundraisers in California.  Looks more and more like he will absolutely dominate McCain on the money front.  If this fundraising pace keeps up, McCain doesn’t stand a chance.  He won’t be able to compete at anywhere near the same level as Obama and will be overwhelmed in state after state.

Barack Obama raised almost twice as much as John McCain in July.  Obama pulled in $51 million, which means he has raised over $400 million total so far.  McCain’s total is just $171 million.

Apparently John McCain’s campaign is so crappy compared to Barack Obama’s that the media has resorted to finding obscure, tiny groups of people that favor McCain so that they can write a big article about them.  The Politico informs us that Sports Team Owners overwhelmingly favor John McCain; even the sport team owners in Chicago!

Sports team owners may not be John McCain’s answer to the Hollywood elite, but they’re overwhelmingly supporting his presidential campaign over Barack Obama’s.

Through the end of June, team owners in the four major sports and their families have given to or raised more than $3.2 million for McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, compared with only $615,000 for his Democratic rival Obama, according to a Politico analysis of data from the Federal Election Commission, the campaigns and interviews.

Is there really nothing better to write about?

Big news out of Ohio today.  Ohio has passed a law to allow same day voter registration and early voting.  These laws typically help to increase low income and minority turnout which clearly helps Barack Obama.  It is good for voters as well because it makes voting so much easier.  Many non-voters don’t realize they need to be registered ahead of time to vote; they go to vote on election day and are turned away.  Same day registration fixes that problem and allows everyone to that wants to.

Early voting makes voting much easier for people that have trouble getting to the polls.  Usually these are people who work long or odd hours, or people such as single mothers that work two jobs.  Giving these folks extra time to plan when they can cast their vote is just the right thing to do.  Everyone has a right to vote and should be given the opportunity to do so.

Of course Republicans don’t like more people exercising their right to vote:

In Ohio, Republicans are clearly not pleased with same-day registration and voting and have not ruled out a lawsuit against Democratic Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner’s office.

“You have to wonder, when they look at what they consider a loophole with such excitement,” said Jason Mauk, the Ohio Republican Party’s executive director. “That would suggest manipulating the process, and I think opens the door to suspicion.”

Typical of Republicans.  Whenever a law is passed that helps people vote they scream about voter fraud.  Note to Republicans: it’s not voter fraud to allow legal U.S. citizens every opportunity to vote.

Cindy Sheehan has qualified for the ballot in California’s 8th Congressional District.  If there is one thing I dislike more than the War in Iraq, it’s Cindy Sheehan.  Her absurd tactics are so politically inept it’s embarrassing.  Furthermore, she harmed the efforts to turn public opinion against the war: the average person is less likely to take a political position if that position is the same as someone who they see as crazy.

I’ll stop here before this becomes a ridiculously long rant.  I look forward to Nancy Pelosi crushing Sheehan this November.  Maybe after she loses she will finally go away.

I was all set to start researching the numbers to prove why John McCain’s big ground game push:

A month ago, McCain’s campaign made a combined 20,000 phone calls and door-knocks. Last week, they made 324,000 — a sixteen-fold increase.

…is really just kind of sad compared to Obama’s, but then I saw Sean over at Five Thirty Eight already did that.  So, read his analysis:

Let’s do some quick math. Martin’s reporting suggests to us based on that ratio that nationwide, in one week, the McCain campaign talked to approximately 81,000 voters. The Obama campaign talked to about 27,000 in one state in one night. If we make a reasonable guess that Ohio has something like one-fifteenth of Obama organizers and volunteers, that’d be 405,000 voters contacted in one night nationwide. In 7 days, that’s 2,835,000 voters contacted, compared to the McCain 81,000, a thirty-five-fold edge.

HAHA!  McCain’s ground game is quite pathetic.

(Thanks Sean!)

The media loves to keep coming back to the idea that somehow Barack Obama is failing because he’s not way ahead in the polls.  Today’s example is The Politico’s front-page article titled Obama Stalls in Public Polling.  Yes, this is a close election.  But to suggest that Barack Obama is somehow a failed candidate because he has not pulled away is misleading and, frankly, incredibly biased.

While Obama still leads in most matchups with John McCain, the Illinois senator’s apparent stall in the polls is a sobering reminder to Democrats intoxicated with his campaign’s promises to expand the electoral map beyond the boundaries that have constrained other recent party nominees. 

That gap between expectations and reality comes as Democrats enjoy the most favorable political winds since at least 1976. At least eight in ten Americans believe the nation is on the wrong track. The Republican president is historically unpopular. From stunning Democratic gains in party registration to the high levels of economic anxiety, Obama should have a healthy lead by almost every measure. Yet, in poll after poll, Obama conspicuously fails to cross the 50 percent threshold. 

But there is a major problem with this analysis.  The most glaringly obvious problem is that Obama is leading and has been leading consistently for some time now.  Furthermore, McCain is losing, and has been for some time now, but there is not a plethora of articles about how McCain should be doing so much better than he is.

The other problem is with national polling both in terms of accuracy and as an indicator electoral outcomes.  Polling is not an exact science; in fact it can be incredibly imprecise and is dependent on what the individual pollster decides is the proper formula for weighting.  In an election year such as this, we should expect higher Democratic turnout than Republican turnout, which will tilt the party identification numbers (which are already in favor of Democrats) even further into the Democratic column.

Then there is the Electoral College.  Our president is not selected by the popular vote (as much as I might wish it was).  If you take a look at the electoral map, the picture is very different.  Here are some current electoral college projections from a few different websites:

Five Thirty Eight: Obama 297.8; McCain 240.2

Real Clear Politics: Obama 238; McCain 163; Toss Ups 137
Without Toss Ups: Obama 322; McCain 216

Pollster: Obama 284; McCain 157; Toss Ups 97

CNN: Obama 221; McCain 189; Toss Ups 128

One thing seems clear in those projections: Obama has a strong lead.  In terms of Electoral Votes, safe Obama states outnumber safe McCain states by anyone’s count.  Furthermore, there aren’t many states in the Obama column that have potential to flip to McCain.  On the other hand, Obama does have an outside shot at a few states (North Carolina, Montana, Georgia) that McCain should have no worries about.

The important thing here is to fight back against this meme.  Barack Obama is doing just fine, and will continue to stay in the lead until he wins the election.  National Polling may fluctuate, but it shows him with a consistent lead; furthermore, the electoral map favors Obama much more than McCain.

Maybe the next time a journalist decides to write one of these nonsense stories they will examine the facts first, and then write about how things don’t look good for John McCain.