Democrats

The media loves to keep coming back to the idea that somehow Barack Obama is failing because he’s not way ahead in the polls.  Today’s example is The Politico’s front-page article titled Obama Stalls in Public Polling.  Yes, this is a close election.  But to suggest that Barack Obama is somehow a failed candidate because he has not pulled away is misleading and, frankly, incredibly biased.

While Obama still leads in most matchups with John McCain, the Illinois senator’s apparent stall in the polls is a sobering reminder to Democrats intoxicated with his campaign’s promises to expand the electoral map beyond the boundaries that have constrained other recent party nominees. 

That gap between expectations and reality comes as Democrats enjoy the most favorable political winds since at least 1976. At least eight in ten Americans believe the nation is on the wrong track. The Republican president is historically unpopular. From stunning Democratic gains in party registration to the high levels of economic anxiety, Obama should have a healthy lead by almost every measure. Yet, in poll after poll, Obama conspicuously fails to cross the 50 percent threshold. 

But there is a major problem with this analysis.  The most glaringly obvious problem is that Obama is leading and has been leading consistently for some time now.  Furthermore, McCain is losing, and has been for some time now, but there is not a plethora of articles about how McCain should be doing so much better than he is.

The other problem is with national polling both in terms of accuracy and as an indicator electoral outcomes.  Polling is not an exact science; in fact it can be incredibly imprecise and is dependent on what the individual pollster decides is the proper formula for weighting.  In an election year such as this, we should expect higher Democratic turnout than Republican turnout, which will tilt the party identification numbers (which are already in favor of Democrats) even further into the Democratic column.

Then there is the Electoral College.  Our president is not selected by the popular vote (as much as I might wish it was).  If you take a look at the electoral map, the picture is very different.  Here are some current electoral college projections from a few different websites:

Five Thirty Eight: Obama 297.8; McCain 240.2

Real Clear Politics: Obama 238; McCain 163; Toss Ups 137
Without Toss Ups: Obama 322; McCain 216

Pollster: Obama 284; McCain 157; Toss Ups 97

CNN: Obama 221; McCain 189; Toss Ups 128

One thing seems clear in those projections: Obama has a strong lead.  In terms of Electoral Votes, safe Obama states outnumber safe McCain states by anyone’s count.  Furthermore, there aren’t many states in the Obama column that have potential to flip to McCain.  On the other hand, Obama does have an outside shot at a few states (North Carolina, Montana, Georgia) that McCain should have no worries about.

The important thing here is to fight back against this meme.  Barack Obama is doing just fine, and will continue to stay in the lead until he wins the election.  National Polling may fluctuate, but it shows him with a consistent lead; furthermore, the electoral map favors Obama much more than McCain.

Maybe the next time a journalist decides to write one of these nonsense stories they will examine the facts first, and then write about how things don’t look good for John McCain.

Walmart is apparently pressuring its employess to vote for Republicans in November.  The company has held meetings with employees where it tell them that a Democratic win in November could harm their jobs.  They say Democrats will pass union legislation that will force employees to join unions, costing them expensive union dues and possibly forcing them to strike against their will.

Though Walmart claims that it is not telling employees to vote for Democrats, that is exactly what it is doing:

The Wal-Mart human-resources managers who run the meetings don’t specifically tell attendees how to vote in November’s election, but make it clear that voting for Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Barack Obama would be tantamount to inviting unions in, according to Wal-Mart employees who attended gatherings in Maryland, Missouri and other states.

“The meeting leader said, ‘I am not telling you how to vote, but if the Democrats win, this bill will pass and you won’t have a vote on whether you want a union,’” said a Wal-Mart customer-service supervisor from Missouri. “I am not a stupid person. They were telling me how to vote,” she said.

Walmart is actively misinforming its employees about unions, and is trying to scare them into voting for Republicans:

According to about a dozen Wal-Mart employees who attended such meetings in seven states, Wal-Mart executives claim that employees at unionized stores would have to pay hefty union dues while getting nothing in return, and may have to go on strike without compensation. Also, unionization could mean fewer jobs as labor costs rise.

Walmart has been a longtime enemy of organized labor.  It once closed a store in Canada when the employees there voted to unionize.  The company will do anything to prevent unionization.

Here are the top five reasons why I am voting for Barack Obama:

1. The Economy - In 2009 the United States is projected to have a deficit of more than $480 BILLION.  Our national debt is quickly climbing to $10 TRILLION.  Republicans have run our economy into the ground with their irresponsible fiscal policies, and our children (and their children) will pay the price.  It is no easy task to pay off $10 trillion dollars in debt.  As if our nation’s cash flow problems weren’t enough to be concerned about, the American people aren’t doing so great these days either.  With gas at $4 a gallon, and many foods at all time high prices, many American families are struggling to get by.  Jobs are being lost, and not being replaced.  Paul Krugman posted a graph of employment growth for each president back to Dwight Eisenhower.  Notice the clear difference between the Democrats and the Republicans.  The Republican Party has proven time and time again that they are not good stewards of the economy.  It’s time to go with a Democrat.
2. The Iraq War - The Iraq War was a mistake from day one.  Saddam Hussein was a terrible human being, but he posed little threat to the United States.  He had no weapons of mass destruction; he was surrounded by nations that despised him and would contain him (Israel, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Turkey, Iran - not to mention the American patrolled no fly zones).  Furthermore, Saddam had no role whatsoever in the planning, funding, or execution of the 9/11 attacks.  Yes, the Iraqi people are better off without Saddam Hussein.  But Iraq distracted us from the war we should have been fighting.  It is still distracting us from the war we should be fighting.  The Iraqi government and military can step up and take control of their nation.  It’s time for the United States to withdraw and refocus it’s military efforts where they are most needed.  Barack Obama supports withdrawal in 16 months so that we can do just that.  Which of course brings me to reason 3.
3. The War in Afghanistan - Obama recognizes that Afghanistan is the central front in the War on Terror.  He advocates sending at least an additional two brigades to Afghanistan.  We should have had these extra troops there in the first place.  It is well documented that Osama bin Laden was in Tora Bora when we bombed it, but slipped out through the mountain passes.  We did not have enough troops to adequately secure the area to assure his death or capture.  This is a mistake that will not be made a second time if Barack Obama is president.  On September 11th, 2001 Al Qaeda, on the orders of Osama bin Laden, attacked the United States and killed more than 3,000 people.  in the 7 years since the Bush Administration has failed to capture or kill bin Laden.  It’s clear that Republican priorities are flawed, but John McCain wants to continue those policies.  Barack Obama will capture kill Osama bin Laden because his foreign policy will be focused on Afghanistan and dismantling terror networks, rather than foolish and costly preemptive wars.
4. Health Care - The health care system in the United States is a mess.  Despite spending far more on health care than any other industrialized nation, Americans often receive worse care.  American life expectancy and infant mortality rates have fallen behind other modernized nations.  A major part of the problem is that the lack of quality, affordable health care means that our system focuses on curing an illness rather than preventing it in the first place.  Barack Obama has a health care plan that will give access to quality, affordable health care to every single American.  John McCain does not.  If your health is important to you, the choice in this election is clear.
5. Energy - Our economy and our planet are both in peril and a major reason is our dependence on fossil fuels.  Not only is this an economic and ecological problem, but it is also a national security problem.  We cannot rely on foreign sources of energy and maintain our position as the worlds only superpower.  John McCain’s solution is to drill offshore, drill in Alaska, and drill everywhere else we can put an oil well.  But we can’t drill our way out of this problem.  Barack Obama’s energy plan will guide our nation to energy independence with the use of clean, renewable sources of energy such as wind and solar.