CNN

The media loves to keep coming back to the idea that somehow Barack Obama is failing because he’s not way ahead in the polls.  Today’s example is The Politico’s front-page article titled Obama Stalls in Public Polling.  Yes, this is a close election.  But to suggest that Barack Obama is somehow a failed candidate because he has not pulled away is misleading and, frankly, incredibly biased.

While Obama still leads in most matchups with John McCain, the Illinois senator’s apparent stall in the polls is a sobering reminder to Democrats intoxicated with his campaign’s promises to expand the electoral map beyond the boundaries that have constrained other recent party nominees. 

That gap between expectations and reality comes as Democrats enjoy the most favorable political winds since at least 1976. At least eight in ten Americans believe the nation is on the wrong track. The Republican president is historically unpopular. From stunning Democratic gains in party registration to the high levels of economic anxiety, Obama should have a healthy lead by almost every measure. Yet, in poll after poll, Obama conspicuously fails to cross the 50 percent threshold. 

But there is a major problem with this analysis.  The most glaringly obvious problem is that Obama is leading and has been leading consistently for some time now.  Furthermore, McCain is losing, and has been for some time now, but there is not a plethora of articles about how McCain should be doing so much better than he is.

The other problem is with national polling both in terms of accuracy and as an indicator electoral outcomes.  Polling is not an exact science; in fact it can be incredibly imprecise and is dependent on what the individual pollster decides is the proper formula for weighting.  In an election year such as this, we should expect higher Democratic turnout than Republican turnout, which will tilt the party identification numbers (which are already in favor of Democrats) even further into the Democratic column.

Then there is the Electoral College.  Our president is not selected by the popular vote (as much as I might wish it was).  If you take a look at the electoral map, the picture is very different.  Here are some current electoral college projections from a few different websites:

Five Thirty Eight: Obama 297.8; McCain 240.2

Real Clear Politics: Obama 238; McCain 163; Toss Ups 137
Without Toss Ups: Obama 322; McCain 216

Pollster: Obama 284; McCain 157; Toss Ups 97

CNN: Obama 221; McCain 189; Toss Ups 128

One thing seems clear in those projections: Obama has a strong lead.  In terms of Electoral Votes, safe Obama states outnumber safe McCain states by anyone’s count.  Furthermore, there aren’t many states in the Obama column that have potential to flip to McCain.  On the other hand, Obama does have an outside shot at a few states (North Carolina, Montana, Georgia) that McCain should have no worries about.

The important thing here is to fight back against this meme.  Barack Obama is doing just fine, and will continue to stay in the lead until he wins the election.  National Polling may fluctuate, but it shows him with a consistent lead; furthermore, the electoral map favors Obama much more than McCain.

Maybe the next time a journalist decides to write one of these nonsense stories they will examine the facts first, and then write about how things don’t look good for John McCain.

Barack Obama isn’t going to let ignorance steal this election:

Posted By: Nick

 
In a move of sheer genius, the RNC will counter Barack Obama’s Berlin speech by advertising in Berlin, NH; Berlin, PA; and Berlin, WI.  Because Barack can only be in one Berlin to give a speech, the RNC will outdo him by advertising in THREE Berlins.  The ad:

Title: Obama Chooses Washington Over Our Military (60 seconds)

VO: There are few votes as important as funding our men and women in uniform.
VO: But when our military needed necessary resources, Barack Obama failed to stand up.
VO: Obama said that nobody wanted to play chicken with our troops on the ground.
VO: But when it came time to act, he voted against critical resources: no to individual body armor, no to helicopters, no to ammunition, no to aircraft.
VO: The bill Obama opposed even had funding for veterans’ medical facilities and rehabilitation programs.
VO: And why did he say no?
VO: Obama chose Washington politics over the needs of our military.
VO: And Senator McCain?
VO: As a veteran and someone who has always put the public interest first, John McCain stood by our troops.
VO: If Obama can’t rise above politics to support our soldiers in a time of war, then how can he claim to have the strength to change the way Washington works?
VO: John McCain is ready to lead. Barack Obama is not.

Mark Preston, who wrote the CNN snippet linked above, thinks that this is:

certainly a clever way to gain some national press and perhaps gain some buzz in these three battleground states…

Wrong.  It’s a clever way for the RNC to gain some national press and to then be ridiculed for it’s complete inability to come up with any good ideas about how to counter the highly successful Obama trip.