With Ted Stevens under indictment, things look good for Mark Begich. Kos has some information on how the race will be affected:
Update IIIby kos:
Adam B has found the relevant statute:
AS 15.25.110. Filling Vacancies By Party Petition.
If a candidate of a political party nominated at the primary election dies, withdraws, resigns, becomes disqualified from holding the office for which the candidate is nominated, or is certified as being incapacitated in the manner prescribed by this section after the primary election and 48 days or more before the general election, the vacancy may be filled by party petition. The central committee of any political party or any party district committee may certify as being incapacitated any candidate nominated by their respective party by presenting to the director a sworn statement made by a panel of three licensed physicians, not more than two of whom may be of the same political party, that the candidate is physically or mentally incapacitated to an extent that would in the panel’s judgment prevent the candidate from active service during the term of office if elected. The director shall place the name of the person nominated by party petition on the general election ballot. The name of a candidate disqualified under this section may not appear on the general election ballot.
In other words, the party can replace Stevens if he withdraws within 48 days of the general election. That would be sometime mid-September. Only problem for the GOP — they’ve got no one clean in the state. The Palin abuse-of-power scandal looms even larger today.
Update IV: The 48-days date is September 17. Now looking into whether Stevens can be replaced by his party without his consent. It seems that would be hard to impossible, but much depends on what state law and GOP party bylaws say. Note that no replacement can happen before the primary since there isn’t a nominee. In theory, one of Stevens’ primary opponents might win, but the anti-Stevens vote is split among 2-3 candidates, and none of them are high profile.
Obviously if Stevens stays in this race moves to Strong Democratic. Even with a Stevens withdrawal though I think Begich is highly likely to win this race now. Alaska is not a big state, and it seems pretty much every Republican there is tied to one scandal or another these days.
