In the event of a tie in the Electoral College, Barack Obama will be our next President, according to the Politico’s David Mark. Although not too likely, there is a plausible scenario this year in which both Barack Obama and John McCain end up with 269 Electoral Votes. In this situation, the House of Representatives decides who will become President.
Here’s the most likely scenario for a tie: Give Obama the 252 electoral votes John Kerry won for the Democrats in 2004, and add to those New Mexico (5) and Iowa (7), which narrowly went for President Bush in 2004 after backing Al Gore in 2000, and traditionally Republican Colorado (9), where changing demographics favor Obama. Subtract New Hampshire(4), renowned for its independent streak and where voters in Republican primaries have twice favored McCain over establishment-backed and better-funded candidates, and it amounts to 269-269.
But the House doesn’t simply take an up or down vote. Instead, each state delegation gets one vote. Democrats hold a majority in most state delegations, and will likely increase their holdings this year (it is the incoming House of Representatives that selects the President).
But no matter the breakdown, it’s a good bet that a 269-269 tie would result in an Obama victory in the House, where the Constitution gives each state’s delegation one vote. The vote of California’s 53 members, for example, could be canceled out by North Dakota’s one-member delegation. In the current 110th Congress, Democrats control 26 state delegations to the Republicans’ 22, while two are tied. And with Democrats poised to pick up seats in the fall elections, that margin is likely to increase.
What the article didn’t mention is perhaps the most interesting outcome. If the House of Representatives cannot select the President (if there is a 25-25 tie) then the Presidency goes to the Speaker of the House. We would have President Nancy Pelosi. A liberal Democrat from San Francisco would be President. How do you think Republicans would feel about that result?
