The Drums of War

Posted By: Nick

 
There has been quite the increase in commentary this week about possible war with Iran.  It’s an unfortunate situation that looks like it may not have a happy ending with the current administration running the show.

The truth of a war with Iran is that the United States would win.  While Iran is larger than Iraq, and has a better military, they are still no match for the United States Military.  We would win.  We would win quickly and decisively.  But after we win… then what?  Suddenly we would find ourselves occupying a vast swath of the middle east (Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan).  Iran is much larger than Iraq both in terms of geographic area and population.  The occupation of Iraq will likely pale in comparison to an occupation of Iran.

The further concern is what will happen in terms of the broader Middle East.  Will Iran launch missiles at Israel in response?  Will this draw other nations into the conflict?  The situation could quickly get out of hand.  The mere though of the United States occupying so much more of the Middle East will surely inflame the Islamic world.

Oil prices, already at ridiculous levels, will surely increase.

But these things may be inevitable.  Afterall, a nuclear Iran is unacceptable.  Though some in my party on the far left would like us to never go to war for any reason, sometimes we must.  If Iran looks to be on the verge of developing a bomb, we must stop them.  Fortunately the recent estimates I’ve read give us at least another year before Iran has an operational nuclear weapon.  And even then, they would have only the one (or maybe two?).  We still have time to resolve the situation without war, and the Bush administration (and whichever administration comes in next year) should actively pursue all avenues of dealing with Iran.  We should be talking to Iranians.  Diplomacy works, and can work in this situation.  But that shouldn’t be our only action.  We should continue to actively seek sanctions as long as the Iranians continue nuclear development.  We should maintain our covert actions to both hamper Iran’s nuclear production and to make Iran’s cost of doing business unmanageable.

If we actively engage Iran on numerous fronts (Diplomatic, Economic, Military [covert operations and threats]) we can resolve this situation before it gets out of hand.

The alternative of course is a war that we will win, but which may cripple our nation as a result.